In January 2023, with the support of Energy Foundation China, the Guangdong Urban and Rural Planning and Design Institute released this report on how factors are affecting carbon emissions in Guangdong, a manufacturing powerhouse in southern China, based on a scenario analysis.

The study was conducted at the provincial and city levels, focusing on the relationship between carbon emissions and impact factors in one of China’s most developed provinces. The report summarizes how carbon emissions are influenced by different factors such as population, economic growth, and construction land, before it predicts Guangdong’s future carbon emissions in two scenarios: business as usual, and enhanced mitigation. The report also provides carbon reduction policy recommendations for three different categories of cities, including more detailed suggestions for Zhongshan, Zhaoqing, Jieyang, and Huizhou. The authors hope the report can help present scientific evidence, as Guangdong strives to achieve its carbon peaking and neutrality goals.