In December 2022, the Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning released this research report evaluating future freight demand change in China against the backdrop of the country’s carbon goals, and its impact on carbon and criteria air pollutant emissions. The research was supported by Energy Foundation China.

This report takes commodities as the research object to understand the current situation of production and consumption in China and their correlation with freight demand. After that, the report identifies the driving factors affecting the freight volume of various goods, and forecasts the change of commodity freight demand from 2022 to 2040 based on the development of key industries. The report also evaluates the impact of freight demand change on carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions, before it puts forward policy recommendations on freight demand control and green freight transport.