In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was officially adopted, marking the beginning of a coordinated global response to address climate change. Over the past three decades, what once seemed a distant concern has evolved into a global priority, with climate action and low-carbon development becoming shared objectives worldwide. In China, climate action is now driven by the “dual-carbon” goals—to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060—which have become an important development direction and research priority.

“Behind this transformation is a growing recognition of the urgency of climate action by governments and citizens worldwide, alongside increasing confidence in low-carbon development. This confidence arises from a clear and optimistic understanding of the goals, direction, and potential of the low-carbon transition,” said Sha Fu, Director of Strategy and Planning at Energy Foundation China (EF China). “Since our entry into China, EF China has worked closely with research partners to take a visionary approach and develop scientifically grounded pathways for China’s medium- to long-term low-carbon development. Our goal is to help China build the confidence and capacity to achieve a ‘win-win’ future where climate, energy, the environment, and the economy can all thrive together.”

Towards 2020: Energy Conservation as a Strategic Priority

At the turn of the 21st century, China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) accelerated its economic growth. The government set an ambitious goal of quadrupling GDP by 2020 compared to 2000 levels. However, this rapid economic expansion was also accompanied by surging energy consumption and CO2 emissions. As China embarked towards its 2020 economic objectives, a critical question arose in the research community: How could energy development be made more sustainable?

At that time, EF China had just established its presence in the country, with a central focus to promote sustainable energy strategies. In 2003, EF China partnered with an expert team on a comprehensive research report, China's Sustainable Energy Scenarios in 2020. This was the first report of its kind to focus on medium- to long-term energy consumption and CO2 emissions, using scenario-based modeling to assess potential pathways for China’s low-carbon transition. The study outlined three scenarios: the Baseline Scenario, the Comprehensive Energy Measures Scenario, and the Enhanced Energy-Saving Measures Scenario. This study modeled and projected China’s low-carbon transition goals by 2020, as well as different policy and technological pathways for achieving these goals, sparking widespread discussions among key stakeholders. Besides, the report introduced innovative analytical tools and scenario-based methodologies, which drew attention from research institutions and contributed to the development of medium- and long-term studies in this field. In particular, the study proposed a sustainable development strategy centered on energy conservation for the next 20 years, along with a series of supporting measures. This approach was well-received by government, academia, and industry, inspiring further research and building consensus around the potential of energy-saving technologies and policies. China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan then introduced, for the first time, a binding target to “reduce energy intensity by 20%” over the period 2006-2010, making energy conservation a national priority across all sectors. This strategic focus was further solidified by the Decision of the State Council on Strengthening Energy Conservation, released in 2006. These policy developments played a crucial role in promoting energy efficiency and emission reduction across China.

Vision 2050: A Phased Path to Low-Carbon Transition

Despite China’s progress in reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP, rapid economic growth continued to drive up total energy consumption. In 2006, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that China had become the world’s largest carbon emitter. Meanwhile, the opportunity window for limiting global temperature rise began closing, making the long-term goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 a top agenda item in global climate governance. As the 2009 UN Climate Summit Copenhagen (COP15) approached, the international community anticipated a new global agreement with more ambitious emission reduction targets that would accelerate climate action and ensure sustainable development. As the largest developing country and carbon emitter, China faced the challenge of balancing its development needs with the imperative to address climate change, striving to find a practical path to a low-carbon future.

In 2007, EF China partnered with over 10 leading research institutes to launch a pioneering study on China’s comprehensive energy and carbon emissions strategies, with a medium- to long-term vision for 2050. Based on a comprehensive review of China’s climate and energy actions, the study provided analytical support for a phased low-carbon transition over the next 40 years. Starting from 2010 and progressing decade by decade, the phased analysis outlined key roadmaps for building a low-carbon economy under various technological and policy frameworks. Notably, it was the first to propose the feasibility of China reaching its carbon peak by around 2030. The report also set out practical emission reduction targets and actionable solutions under a low-carbon economy scenario in 2020. These insights were well-received by the government and academia, contributing to China’s carbon strategies by providing clarity and confidence to industry stakeholders.

Shortly after the report's release, on December 18, 2009, China announced its emissions reduction target at COP15, committing to a 40-45% reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. For the first time, this target was incorporated into China’s medium- to long-term national development plans as a binding goal, underscoring the country's priority on climate and energy action.

Reshaping Energy Strategy: A “Win-Win” Outcome of China’s Energy Revolution

For decades, fossil fuel development powered China's rise to become the world’s second-largest economy. However, this rapid economic growth has come at the cost of environmental and resource degradation, making the traditional growth model increasingly unsustainable. To address these challenges, China needed to accelerate its energy transition to embrace a more sustainable development path. In 2012, a new trend of “promoting the revolution in energy production and consumption” began to emerge in China, marking a decisive shift in its energy strategy to foster sustainable growth while contributing to the global low-carbon transition and sustainable development.

In support of this energy revolution, EF China partnered with leading domestic and international research institutes in 2013 to launch a pivotal study on reshaping China’s energy landscape. The study identified four critical areas to drive China’s energy transition through 2050: reducing energy demand, optimizing energy use, electrifying energy consumption, and adopting renewable or low-carbon energy sources. The study aimed to maximize energy efficiency and the share of renewables in energy use, improving both energy security and environmental quality. It projected that by 2050, these strategic shifts could raise China’s energy productivity by a factor of seven and its carbon productivity by a factor of twelve. It also highlighted the economic benefits of advancing the energy transition – despite an initial investment requirement of RMB 46 trillion, the strategy was expected to save RMB 68 trillion in total energy costs. These in-depth analyses and findings underscored that a low-carbon transition could lead to “win-win” outcomes environmentally and economically, providing scientific evidence for the ongoing discussion across sectors on balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. These findings offered new insights for Chinese policymakers and research institutions at home and abroad, reinforcing confidence in China’s ongoing energy revolution and charting a new course toward green, low-carbon development.

Contributing to the “Dual Carbon” Goals: Synergies between Low-Carbon and Sustainable Development

The 2015 Paris Agreement called for countries to submit long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) for the mid-21st century by 2020, alongside their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs). As global temperatures rise closer and closer to the 1.5°C target, climate risks have intensified, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Meanwhile, with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, energy security has become a top priority for nations worldwide. Facing changes unseen in a century, ranging from rising trade protectionism to technological competition, leading economies are seeking to enhance climate action, environmental sustainability, energy security, and economic growth in ways that create synergies between these interconnected priorities.

Recognizing the evolving domestic and international landscape, EF China established the Long-term Strategy (LTS) Task Force in 2018, uniting its expertise and that of its partners to explore “win-win” solutions tailored to Chinese characteristics for addressing climate, energy, and sustainability through strategic, long-term research. In 2019, together with 24 research institutions, the LTS task force launched a comprehensive study on China’s long-term low-carbon development strategies and pathways. This research, spanning 18 sub-topics, assessed China’s overall development objectives and the Paris Agreement’s temperature control targets, taking into account the broader trends across the society, economy, policy, and energy sectors. Notably, the study concluded that China could feasibly peak its CO2 emissions by 2030; on top of that, accelerating and intensifying decarbonization efforts could lay the groundwork for achieving net-zero emissions of all greenhouse gases—or carbon neutrality—by 2060. It identified numerous “win-win” opportunities associated with China’s carbon neutrality, such as improved air quality, enhanced sustainability, and vast investment potential. For instance, to meet the 1.5°C global temperature target, RMB 138 trillion of new green investment is needed in China by 2050. The report was well received by Chinese authorities, and will serve as an important reference in the development of the country’s 2035 NDCs and LT-LEDS. In September 2020, China announced its “dual carbon” goals – to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 – which have since become a cornerstone of its low-carbon transition and a key driver for climate action and sustainability efforts.

As part of the global climate governance process, countries are now required to submit their new NDCs by 2025, with a timeframe for implementation to 2035. In light of this imperative, EF China, alongside over 20 domestic organizations, jointly launched the “Research on China’s 2035 and Medium- to Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy in the Context of Carbon Neutrality” in 2021. Encompassing 21 specialized studies, this research mapped out targeted emission reduction pathways for key sectors, including industry, power, construction, transportation, agriculture, forestry, and energy. It also addressed specific areas like civil aviation, water transport, railways, and road transport, focusing on both the 2035 and 2060 targets. The report projected the economic and employment impacts of the carbon-neutral transition through 2060, which could generate green and low-carbon investments totaling between RMB 215 and 248 trillion – equivalent to approximately 2% of China’s cumulative GDP over this period. The shift toward renewable energy is also expected to create substantial job opportunities, with employment in the renewable energy sector expected to be 1.5 to 3 times higher than in traditional energy industries. These findings, particularly the phased analysis leading up to 2035, have played a key role in shaping China’s policy decisions and provided a scientific basis for discussions around the country’s upcoming NDC.

Carbon-neutral technologies play a pivotal role in advancing China's “dual-carbon” goals. An IEA report indicated that half of the key technologies needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 are still in the demonstration or prototype stages. To effectively curb global warming, countries must accelerate the development and implementation of clean energy technologies, incorporating them into energy and climate policies. In 2022, EF China and its partners brought together leading experts from various fields to participate in the “Technology Outlook toward China’s Carbon Neutrality” project. The project aimed to map out China’s technological roadmap and development blueprint toward carbon neutrality, with a particular emphasis on wind energy, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). It also addressed cutting-edge topics, including innovations in carbon-neutral technologies, engineering planning, and industrial pathways across key sectors such as transportation, industry, new power systems, and methane management. As part of this project, EF China and its partners hosted a series of “Carbon Neutral Technology Forums,” bringing together experts and industry leaders to discuss the latest advancements in low-carbon technologies, fostering the integration of technological innovation with policy incentives. These discussions provided analyses and recommendations for the sustainable development of carbon-neutral technologies, helping to accelerate the clean energy transition both in China and globally.

“Looking toward a carbon-neutral future, EF China will continue working closely with all partners, staying focused on the present while keeping sight of long-term goals,” said Sha Fu. “Together, we will help China explore a carbon-neutral pathway that delivers multiple benefits for the climate, environment, society, and sustainability. This pathway will align with global efforts to meet the 2°C/1.5°C temperature target, laying a solid foundation for a new growth model that ensures sustainable prosperity and carbon neutrality, both for China and the world.”